Every day BBSO provides a report of solar activity on our web site. If large flares are expected, we also send out a warning to people on our Activity Warning Mailing List. Originally this practice developed out of the simple necessity for the BBSO observers to figure out which active regions to observe. BBSO was originally established with the primary purpose to obtain time-lapse movies of the development of active regions and flares. The telescopes had a limited field of view, so choices had to be made about which region to observe. While there were always phone calls from Pasadena (we were part of Caltech at that time), much of the time the observers had to make their own decisions based largely on their own observations. When e-mail came into use, the "Bearalert" system was set up to let other observers know when high activity was occurring or expected to occur, and which region(s) it was occurring in. (This is slightly different from the NOAA forecasts, which are not as much concerned with the _location_ of the activity.) When the BBSO web page was first set up, a daily activity report and forecast was added. For various reasons after the NJIT takeover in 1997 the "Bearalert" name was dropped and the e-mail messages are now called Activity Warnings.
So, there are two types of messages we compose: Reports, which are written every day and appear on the BBSO website, and Warnings, which are sent out by e-mail but also appear on the website. Warnings are only written when there is particularly high activity. Nowadays we also post the warnings on our Facebook page (at least when I remember to).
Originally these reports were based on observations only from BBSO. Nowadays, we generally use SDO data, our BBSO H-alpha data, and data from GONG. Data from NST requires post-processing before they can be used, so we don't use these data in the reports. Using these sources reports can be done even if the weather is bad in Big Bear.
The daily report begins with a paragraph (or more) describing the overall situation on the Sun. We begin with a sentence such as "Solar activity is (one of the following)."
very low -- no spots on the Sun. low -- some spots visible. There may be one or two C-class flares. moderate -- Flares are present, up to one or two M-class flares. high -- Flares are present, up to one X-class flare less than X5 or so. very high -- Multiple X-class flares. extreme -- X10+ flares. Tinfoil hat time. "Significant flares" are flares class C or above.
The regions with spots are listed, preferably in order from west to east on the Sun. We use the NOAA region numbers, unless the region doesn't have one, in which case we say "unnumbered region". Note that sometimes NOAA doesn't catch all the regions, and sometimes their positions are wrong, so we check them for sanity. We generally don't list regions that don't have spots unless we think such a region is a candidate for flares.
Each region is listed with its heliographic coordinates and its "SOHO/TRACE/SDO" offsets (these are offsets in arc seconds from solar disk center in the solar N-S and E-W directions), followed by its Mt. Wilson magnetic class based on our view of the observations. We will sometimes add remarks about each region, followed by the flare forecast (if any) for the region.
The positions are generally found from the solarmonitor.org site or from the NOAA activity report. If that's not available (no NOAA number, etc.), or the NOAA position is wrong, the heliographic position is found using a Stonyhurst grid and then the SOHO/TRACE offset can be found using a little program we have.
At the end of the report we give the date and time the coordinates are valid.
When we give a forecast of flare activity, we give the class of flare predicted and a descriptive likelihood (I don't think our methods are precise enough to use specific percentages in the report!)
possible --- up to 30% or so likely --- up to 60% or so expected --- up to 90% or so certain --- 100%
An example of an activity report:
[A header is added automatically giving the date and time the report was submitted.] Solar activity is low. No significant flares occurred overnight. Regions NOAA 11434 and 11435 are now stable beta regions. A C-class event is still possible from NOAA 11434. NOAA 11435, S25 W58 (X= 742,Y=-348). Beta region. NOAA 11434, S20 W48 (X= 674,Y=-253). Beta region. C-class flare possible. NOAA 11433, N08 W37 (X= 575,Y= 227). Alpha region. Positions as of March 19, 2012 at 14:00 UT. JV
Warnings are sent out if we think M-class flares are likely or expected in the next 24 hours, or if X-class flares are considered possible in the next 24 hours.
An example of an activity warning as it appears on the web site:
Solar activity is high. Region NOAA 11429 produced an M8.4 flare yesterday at 17:15 UT. This region remains beta-gamma-delta class and is a reversed-polarity region. H-alpha remains bright. An M-class flare is likely and an X-class flare is possible from this region. NOAA 11429, N18 W33 (X= 501,Y= 394). Beta-gamma-delta region. Position as of March 11, 2012 at 12:00 UT. JV
If more than one region needs to be mentioned in the warning, additional paragraphs are added.