Halo CME on 20031026 - SOHO/LASCO c3 Data

Halo CME on 20031026 - SOHO/LASCO C3 Data

COMMENTS: The CME originated in AR0484 and it is a fast one, so there are good chances that the corresponding solar wind disturbance may have a significant southward Bz component when it reaches the earth. The numbers below are estimates of the upper bound for the Bz and the Dst.

CME's Source Region is NOAA AR0484 ; P₀= 25.356981; Day of Year # 299
CME Appeared at 6 Solar Radii on 20031026 at 1818 UT
CME Arrived at 20 Solar Radii on 20031026 at 2030 UT
CME's Projected Speed at 20R: 1351 km/sec

See more info on the event
Estimated Travel Time is 1.77372 +/- 0.25 days
Estimated Time of Arrival is 20031028 at 1504 ( Shock arrived at about 0130UT on 20031028, DoY 301)¹
Estimated Speed of Solar Wind at 1AU is 607 km/sec ( > 600 km/sec)
Estimated Direction of the Bz is SOUTHWARD (SOUTHWARD to UNSETTLED)
Estimated Magnitude of the hourly averaged Bz is -20...-34 nT (-10nT)
Estimated Change of the Dst index is -177...-243nT (-20nT)
Estimated Level of the Geomagnetic Storm is INTENSE...INTENSE(NONE ... NONE)
NONE > -30 > WEAK > -50 > MODERATE > -100 > INTENSE

¹Numbers in red are estimates. Numbers in parenthesis (if any) are actual measured values
^*These estimates should be compared to the observed 1 hour averaged ACE and Dst values

Real Time Dst from World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto

Predicted Dst from Nonlinear Dynamics and Space Physics group

Real Time ACE data

Today's Space Weather

SOHO/LASCO C3 SOHO/LASCO C3 SOHO/LASCO C3

Full Disk Halpha Full Disk SOHO/MDI Full Disk SOHO/EIT195

Active Region Halpha Active Region SOHO/MDI Active Region /EIT195

Images are courtesy of Active Region Monitor

Automaticaly Generated on Mon Oct 27 16:32:50 2003
Please, send questions and comments to Vasyl Yurchyshyn

SOHO/LASCO C3	SOHO/LASCO C3	SOHO/LASCO C3

Full Disk Halpha	Full Disk SOHO/MDI	Full Disk SOHO/EIT195

Active Region Halpha	Active Region SOHO/MDI	Active Region /EIT195